【摘要】 为探讨应用自回归-移动平均ARIMA(p,d,q)模型预测猪瘟发病率的可行性,本研究对1999年1月～2004年12月A、B、C 3个地区的逐月猪瘟发病率进行ARIMA模型的拟合,用2005年1月～2005年12月的猪瘟发病率进行模型预测效果的验证。结果显示ARIMA(0,1,2)模型计算出的预测值与实际值拟合较好,可用于对未来的猪瘟发病率进行预测,为猪瘟的防控工作提供可靠的参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The objective of this study is to investigate the feasibility of using an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model to predict the incidence of classical swine fever(CSF).An ARIMA model was developed based on the monthly incidence of CSF in three areas(A,B,and C) from Jan.1999 to Dec.2004.The model was applied to predict the incidence of CSF from Jan.to Dec.2005 in above areas and validated by comparing with the actual incidences.The result showed the prediction was consistent with the actual incidence of CSF.Application of this model could provide reliable reference for the management of CSF in the future.更多还原