【摘要】 纵观现有旅游地环境承载力(Tourism Environment Carrying Capacity,TECC)理论与应用研究,成果主要集中在从不同角度对其概念、量测指标体系及在旅游管理与规划领域的运用进行探讨,其阈值量测则以静态极值为主,且个案居多,表明学界尚未形成统一的理论研究范式与共同纲领。更为重要的是,TECC阈值研究仅作为概念获得共识,定量分析尤显不足。基于上述原因,本文从复杂系统理论出发,在深入分析TECC与旅游地生命周期之间耦合关系的基础上构建了旅游地动态演化模型,通过引入时空参量探究TECC演化方式及规律性。该研究一方面为探寻TECC理论提供一种新思路,更为重要的是它解决了环境承载力合理阈值量测这一旅游地可持续发展的核心问题,通过借鉴预警理论构建TECC预警系统可对旅游地演化发展进行警情预测与管理调控,这样一方面可解决现今TECC研究缺乏综合性、系统性、动态性和预警性的现实性问题,另一方面可为旅游地管理规划者制定发展战略提供智力支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 Throughout the existing theories and applied researches of tourism environment carrying capacity (TECC),most achievements are mainly concentrated in concept,measurement systems and application in tourism management and planning,meanwhile the threshold measurement of tourism environment carrying capacity is mainly on static extremum and case studies; that means academia has not yet formed a unified theoretical research. More importantly,reasonable threshold of tourism environment carrying capacity only reaches consensus as a concept,ahile quantitative analysis is particularly inadequate. As an open complex system,evolution process of tourism destination has certain regularity. Tourism environment carrying capacity as a limiting factor existing in evolution process of tourism destination has impacts on tourism destination life cycle. So,there is interdependence,mutual influence and interaction coupling relationship between two of them (TECC and tourism destination life circle). Furthermore,both of them take tourism complex systems as object of study,number of tourists as study variable. Therefore,we can study from the angle of complex system theory,make in-depth analysis of coupling relationship between two of them,and build a tourism destination dynamic evolution model and theoretical research framework,The above research,on the one hand,provides a new thought to explore tourism environment carrying capacity theory. On the other hand,it resolves key issues of tourism destination sustainable development:reasonable threshold measurement of tourism environment carrying capacity. In this foundation,it can be used to build tourism environment carrying capacity early warning system for forecasting and management control to evolution process of tourism destination complex system,and thereby,based on this early warning system we can suitably solve problems in current tourism environment carrying capacity study that is not comprehensive,systematic,and dynamic and lacks of early warning,On the other hand,this system can provide relevant intellectual support for tourism planners to draw up development strategy for tourism destination.更多还原