【摘要】 结合航空货邮的特点和灰色预测及马尔可夫链理论的优点,提出航空货邮预测的灰色马尔可夫链模型。灰色马尔可夫链模型既考虑了从时间序列中挖掘数据的演变规律,又通过状态转移概率矩阵的变换,考虑数据的随机波动,它将时间序列数据固有的两种性质有机结合起来,具有严密的科学性,能较好地应用于中国航空货邮运输量的预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the character of air cargo and the advantage of grey model and Markov chain,this paper gives grey Marko chain model for forecasting air cargo.Gray model forecasting curve shows the developing of air cargo,Markov model reflect the volatility law and then optimize the result.By the combination of the two mentioned above,the practical problem is solved.更多还原