【摘要】 供应商违约引发供应中断或延迟会使下游制造商造成巨大损失。同时考虑了供应商具有随机的违约概率及需求不确定的情况,基于CVaR的风险度量准则,建立了基于条件风险价值最小的制造商最优订货模型,数值分析表明订货量与供应商可靠性具有正相关性;当制造商风险参数很高时,可靠性只有达到一定程度,订货量才会有较大幅度提高;当供应商可靠性较低时,降低预定价格会吸引更多的订货。更多还原

【Abstract】 Considering the suppliers with both default risk and uncertain demand,this paper proposes a model for procurement decision based on the conditional value-at-risk(CVaR) model.The impact on the procurement decision from the supplier’s reliability,the manufacturer’s parameter of risk,the price and the losing of opportunity is analyzed.更多还原