【摘要】 气候变化和生物能源对世界粮食安全形成了巨大挑战.作为一个人口大国,粮食生产更成为我国学界、政府乃至社会各界所关注的重大问题.分别利用1991-2005年中国粮食产量与其主要影响因素及2006-2010年进行灰预测获得的数据进行灰关联分析,并从四个时期跨度进行了动态的对比.结果表明:灌溉面积、农业生产资料与农产品价格、粮食播种面积等是影响粮食产量的主要因素.化肥投入量对粮食产量的影响在经历了一个不断增强的上升阶段之后将呈现逐步下降的趋势.更多还原

【Abstract】 Climate change and bio-energy pose great challenge to global food security.As a country with a large population,our academia,government and even every level of society pay tremendous attention to grain production.Grain yield in China from year 1991 to 2005 and its main influencing factors and the data obtained from grey prediction from year 2006 to 2010 were analyzed by grey theory.Especially dynamic comparison was made for four periods.The result indicates that grain yield is strongly affected by factors like irrigation area,agricultural means of production and produce’s price,planting area.The effect of chemical fertilizer input experienced an increase at the beginning and a decrease later on.更多还原