【摘要】 针对美中贸易差额不断扩大而美国日本在华直接投资(FDI)与日俱增的特点,研究了美国和日本在华直接投资对中美贸易差额的影响.文章通过Johansen协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验等计量方法对美日在华直接投资与美中贸易的关系进行了实证检验,结果表明:1989-2006年,美中贸易和美日在华FDI之间存在互补关系,美日在华FDI对美中贸易总进口尤其是工业品进口产生显著的正向影响,而对美中贸易总出口尤其是工业品出口产生显著的负面影响,从而一定程度上加剧了美中贸易逆差的扩大.利用扩展的贸易引力模型,引入FDI、实际汇率等变量,运用Panel Data方法进一步对美国在华制造业FDI对美中制造业贸易的影响力进行估计,发现流入中国制造业的美国FDI与进口呈正相关、出口呈负相关,即美国在华FDI越多,中国向美国出口的制造品将越多,而美国向中国出口的制造品将相对减少,进而恶化了美中贸易逆差.更多还原

【Abstract】 This study aims to examine the relationship between the surge of US-Japanese direct investment into China and the growth of US trade deficit with China.The empirical study is based on Johansen co-integration test,ECM model and Granger causality test over the period 1980-2006.The results show that the rapidly growing US trade deficit with China is directly linked to the growth of US and Japanese multinationals there and FDI has a positive and significant impact on the export-promotion,a negative and significant role in import-substitution of China industries.This paper uses a regression analysis to find what’s impact of US direct investment into China on the growth of US manufacturing exports and imports with China in recent years based on extensive gravity model and Panel data estimation techniques.The estimation results are consistent with direct investment in China by US firms primarily serving to boost China’s exports to the United States while displacing,at least to some extent,the export of goods to China by firms based in the United States,further worsens US trade deficit with China.更多还原