【摘要】 为研究中小企业信用担保路径演化规律,借助演化经济学研究工具,建立银行和担保公司支付矩阵,分析银行和担保公司交往过程的演化模型,用数值仿真展示了决策参数的不同取值和初始条件的改变对演化结果的影响.研究发现:信用担保路径演化系统收敛于两种模式,随着信用担保风险和收益的改变,收敛于不同模式的概率发生显著变化;为寻求跳出不良"锁定"状态指明了方向,现阶段银行群体与信用担保公司群体的交往模式自发演化依赖于各种策略的相对支付;信用担保业的健康发展需要对风险的合理分担;信用担保业长远发展需要改变银行的强势地位.更多还原

【Abstract】 To find out the evolution law of small and medium-sized enterprises(SME) credit guarantees,this paper,using the method of evolution economics,builds a payment matrix of banks and guarantee companies,analyses the evolution model of the associations between banks and guarantee companies,and shows the parametric diversity of decision-making and the effect of changing initial condition on evolution result by numerical simulation.The research reveals that the route evolution system of SME’ credit guarantees converges on two types of patterns,the converging probabilities change notably with the changing of credit-guarantee risks and gains;the research directs the system how to jump out of the "locked" status,and points out that spontaneous evolution of association pattern between groups of banks and credit guarantee companies is dependent on relative payment of various tactics;healthy development of SME’ credit guarantees requires reasonable share of risks;and long-term development of credit-guarantee demands to change the powerful position of banks.更多还原