【摘要】 现有实物期权定价模型未能考虑新产品销售量呈现的S型扩散特征,因此该模型的分析结果与实际情况差距较大。当假设新产品价格服从几何布朗运动,同时用Bass模型预测新产品销售曲线,在连续时间状态下运用动态规划方法,就可构建结合新产品扩散特征的实物期权定价模型。以新的基于Bass模型的实物期权定价模型为基础,通过有限差分方法即可求解新技术采用的最优时机。更多还原

【Abstract】 The present real option pricing model fails to express the S-diffusion feature in new product sales,resulting in the differences between the real situation and the analytical result of the model.Supposed that new product price would follow geometric Brownian motion,combining new product diffusion feature,we have constructed a new real option pricing model,by predicting new product sales curved shape with Bass model and adopting dynamic planning in continuous time situation.Based on Bass model,the new model can help get the optimal adoption timing of new technology.更多还原