【摘要】 【目的】针对病险水库运行风险的量化问题,进行灰色-随机风险计算的复合不确定性分析方法研究。【方法】将病险水库运行中的复杂不确定性影响关系,简化处理为仅由灰色和随机不确定性构成,由此建立了病险水库运行风险的灰色-随机风险率计算方法,并通过对功能函数的确定,将灰色-随机风险概率转换成一般随机风险率,最后应用改进一次二阶矩法,实现对病险水库运行风险的复合不确定性分析与计算。【结果】所求得的风险值为一灰色区间,客观地反映了水库运行风险的不确定性。【结论】工程实例表明,所提出的复合不确定性分析,能较好地评价病险水库的运行风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 【Objective】 Aimed at the quantitative analysis for the run risk of ill reservoir,a complex uncertainty analysis method of grey-stochastic risk evaluation was put forward.【Method】 By simplifying the complicated uncertainty relationships in the run of ill reservoir to a grey-stochastic complex uncertainty,the evaluation method of grey-stochastic risk probability was set up for ill reservoir risk analysis.According to ascertaining the functional function,the grey-stochastic risk probability was transformed into commonly stochastic risk probability.Finally,the amended first-order second-moment method was utilized to calculate the run risk of ill reservoir.【Result】 The risk probability obtained by the grey-stochastic risk evaluation fell in a grey space,which satisfactorily reflected the uncertainty of reservoir run risk.【Conclusion】 Project instance analysis shows that the complex uncertainty analysis method proposed can satisfactorily evaluate the run risk of ill reservoir.更多还原