【摘要】 在短期负荷预测中,一定条件的气象因素会引起负荷变化的积温效应,这种现象对负荷预测的精度有着重要的影响。文中详细分析了积温效应的表现形式,探讨积温效应与气象因素的关系。引入了有效积温的概念,利用有效积温的特性模拟积温效应出现的气象状况,并探讨如何在预测中利用有效积温。通过深入研究,本文提出一种基于神经网络的预测模型,利用有效积温对日最大负荷进行预测,能够在预测中体现气象因素引起的积温效应。预测结果表明,该模型的精度高于传统预测方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 In short term load forecasting,weather factors in some conditions can cause the accumulated temperature effect of changes in load.By analyzing the expression of accumulated temperature effect,it is explorated the relation between accumulated temperature effect and weather factors.Effective accumulated temperature is introduced.It is used to simulate accumulated temperature effect in the forecasting model.In the presence of study,a forecasting model based artificial neural network is proposed.This model can em- body accumulated temperature effect during forecasting by using adequate meteorologic factors.By using the given forecasting model the obtained forecasting results are more accurate.更多还原