【摘要】 中国位于地球环境变化速率最大的季风区,其环境具有空间上的复杂性、时间上的易变性;对外界变化的响应和承受力具有敏感和脆弱的特点。当前中国面临一系列由全球升温带来的环境问题,影响中国经济与社会的可持续发展。利用中国气象中心160站点的实际观察资料,对中国半个世纪的降水变化进行了系统分析。通过Mann-Kendall趋势分析方法和相关分析法,对各个站点的数据进行处理,对各地的降水量变化趋势与突变时间进行了区域对比。结果显示,中国夏季降水存在着显著的区域差异:夏季降水存在明显的西南-东北走向的带状分布现象,这种带状分布的位置和状态,主要受夏季东亚季风与西风复合走向所决定的雨带位置变化是季风强度在不同年份的差异而引起的,其中夏季风的强弱起着关键性作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Global warming is bringing about changes in precipitation patterns, with some areas increasing while other areas drying out. The monsoon climate, complicated landforms and airflows in China complicated the precipitation patterns and variations in China. In this paper, the summer precipitation variation series of 160 Chinese National Meteorological Observatory stations are ana- lyzed to find the spatial precipitation variation across China during 1951-2002. By analysis with Mann-Kendall and correlation methods, precipitation trends and mutation times are compared regionally. Results showed that the summer precipitation is much different in different areas in China. And the variation of the strengths of summer mosoon in various years is the key reason of the uneven distribution of the summer precipitation in China.更多还原