【摘要】 CGE模型中的宏观闭合选择本质上是对宏观经济理论的选择。本文采用Lofgren et al.(2002)的标准CGE模型进行建模,研究了中国CGE模型在不同宏观闭合下的模拟情景。论文以中国加入WTO为例,比较出与现实最接近的宏观闭合选择结果,进而检验不同宏观经济理论在中国的适用情况。研究显示:基于劳动力不完全就业的约翰森闭合的结果更符合中国的短期现实,凯恩斯经济理论更能解释当前中国宏观经济运行的现实现象。更多还原

【Abstract】 The choice of macro closure in GGE model is essentially the choice of macroeconomic theory. This paper adopts the standard CGE model modeled by Lofgren et al. to study the simulations of China’s CGE model under different macro closures. Taking China’s joining in the WTO as an example, this paper finds out the macro closure under which simulation fits the fact, and tests different macroeconomic theories application in China. This paper reveals that the simulation under Johansen closure based on unemployment is more appropriate to the fact in China, the Keynesian economic theory can explain Chinese economic phenomenon more powerful.更多还原