【摘要】 面对突发性传染病对人类身体健康的严重威胁,使用数学模型的方法研究传染病的传染规律、预防措施越来越受到人们的重视.论文通过对概率论中的马尔可夫链这一概念的学习和研究,提出利用马尔可夫链建立传染病预测模型,根据辽宁省干旱地区朝阳市1981年至1993年流行性脑脊髓膜炎的年发病率资料对该预测模型进行了验证,从而得出马尔可夫链传染病预测模型的可靠性以及可信度.更多还原

【Abstract】 Faced the threat of infectious disease,it is emphasized to research of infectious disease’s infectious rules and forecasting methods with "mathmatic" theory. This paper discusses the Markov Chain Model in probability theory and constructs infectious disease’s forecasting model.Then it proves the model’s confidence through the data of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis’ annual incidence from 1981 to 1993 in Chaoyang,Liaoning.更多还原