【摘要】 据1991年江淮地区异常洪水预测的启示,从太湖流域的历史旱涝记载文献,环湖洪水调查成果和实测水位雨量记录等资料,进行太湖流域洪水周期规律的探讨。通过多种周期提取方法,建立起洪水周期信息图,发现太湖洪水存在着8～11年、20～24年、37～42年和58～62年的周期现象,然后采用可公度性法预测,以供防洪减灾参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the flood prediction of the great flood in the Yangtze-Huai River Basin in 1991, documents of floods and draughts in the Taihu Lake Basin, survey and datum on water level and rainfall records, the periodic law of floods was analyzed. With the help of many periodic methods, the information maps were made, which show that the floods in the Taihu Lake Basin have apparent periodicities of 8～10 years, 20～24 years, 37～42 years, and 58～62 years. The periodic phenomenon can be predicted with commensurability method, which can be used for flood control and calamity reduction.更多还原