【摘要】 水文频率分析就是给各种水利工程提供具有概率含义的水文设计数据,以确定工程的规模、投资和效益。传统的水文频率计算方法一般都是假定总体服从P-III型分布,然后采用适线法根据样本估计参数,进而推求设计值。因此,在概率分布线型确定的前提下,水文频率计算实际上就是根据样本资料估算其中包含的参数。从充分利用样本信息、增强参数估计方法的精确性和减少人为因素影响等方面考虑,本文提出了基于粒子群优化算法的优化适线法,并将该方法应用到年最大流量频率分析中。为了进一步了解该方法的统计特性,还将其与传统参数估计方法(矩法、权函数法、概率权重矩法)作了比较。实例表明,该方法能快速的完成参数寻优过程,并较好的寻找出参数的全局最优解。更多还原

【Abstract】 The different scholars have obvious divergence on the basic concepts of water resources carrying capacity and carried objects.Some scholars even suggested giving up the concepts.Considering this,the author holds that it is necessary to retain these concepts and puts forwards new understandings about them through exploring the source of the concept of water resources carrying capacity and discussing different definitions of water resources carrying capacity by different scholars.更多还原