【摘要】 控制全球二氧化碳含量在2050年前不超过500ml/m3和在2010年全球平均升温不超过2℃是当前国际气候保护的热点问题。建立了一个全球性的包含GDP溢出机制和技术进步作用的RICE类型模型,以分析全球合作减排的配额公平性和方案有效性。研究结果表明,为了将2050年全球二氧化碳浓度控制在500ml/m3,以"人均排放权均等"的原则进行国际碳排放权配额分配时,以1861年为历史排放起点会导致发达国家与发展中国家在可使用配额上产生极大悬殊,不易在国际谈判中被接受。Stern的减排方案能虽能较显著地将2100年升温幅度控制在2℃以内,但是,该方案的实施使发展中国家将损失相对较多的经济收益用于支付减排的成本。相比之下较优的国际减排方案为:至2050年,发达国家的排放水平比1990年降低80%,中国、俄罗斯和世界其他国家从2020年之后开始减排,至2050年,中国比2005年排放水平降低25%,俄罗斯比2005年排放水平降低30%,世界其他地区比2005年排放水平增加量不超出30%。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is a focus of climate protection to stabilize CO2 concentration within 500ml/m3 by 2050 and to lower the global temperature 2℃ by 2100.This paper expands the RICE model for global climate-change strategies to include GDP spillover mechanism and technological progress,assessing the equity and effectiveness of the global emission quota allocation among countries.The emission target of our model is stabilizing CO2 concentration within 500ml/m3 by 2050.The results show the disparity of remaining emission quotas between developed and developing countries will be too great to be accepted in global quota allocation negotiation while historical emissions are counted from 1861 with the concept of equal emission right per capita.Reaching the 2℃ target for EU countries,the Stern climate strategy would make developing countries afford relatively more to reduce emission.A comparatively equitable and efficient strategy is that developed countries should take immediate action and commit to cutting emission by 80% of 1990 levels by 2050;China and Russia start to reduce emission from 2020,and cut emission by 25%,30% of 2005 levels respectively by 2050;and the rest of the world start to reduce from 2020 and the increased emission should be no more than 30% of 2005 levels.更多还原