【摘要】 旅游业对于中国经济发展具有举足轻重的作用,旅游业对国民经济贡献的分析可以从多个角度展开,旅游乘数分析是其中一个重要的方面.运用基于状态空间模型的可变参数模型估计并计算得到中国旅游边际消费倾向、狭义中国旅游收入乘数和广义中国旅游收入乘数.通过分析得出了可变参数模型适合用来测度中国的旅游边际消费倾向和旅游收入乘数,以及旅游对中国国民经济具有明显的拉动作用等重要结论,并提出相关政策建议以促进中国旅游业的持续健康发展.更多还原

【Abstract】 Tourism industry is a significant section of Chinese national economy.The analysis of contribution of tourism to Chinese economic development can be done from many aspects.One important aspect among them is tourism multiplier analysis.Using Time-varying Parameter Model based on State Space Model,this paper estimated Chinese Marginal Propensity to Tourism Consumption and Chinese Tourism Income Multiplier respectively.By analysis,this paper induced conclusions as follows:Time-varying Parameter Model is suitable to estimate Chinese Marginal Propensity to Tourism Consumption and Tourism Income Multiplier,tourism has distinct effect to pull Chinese national economy,etc.And this paper also made some suggestions to facilitate the sustainable and healthy development of Chinese tourism.更多还原