【摘要】 采用时间序列分析法对黄河下游河道断面形态参数变化趋势及其变异点进行了分析。结果表明从20世纪50年代以来,特别是90年代以来黄河下游花园口站、高村站、艾山站和利津站断面形态参数发生了趋势性变化,主河槽变化的最显著特征就是断面平滩流量下降,相应的平滩面积、平滩河宽、平均水深、最大水深均出现不同程度的减小,平滩宽深比增大。变异点分析表明黄河下游河道主河槽总体上在1970—1975年开始萎缩,1990年以后进入严重萎缩期。更多还原

【Abstract】 The time series analysis method was applied to study the variation tendency of channel cross-section morphological parameters in the Lower Yellow River. The result shows that since 1950’s, especially after 1990’s, themorphological parameters of the channel cross sections in four typical hydrological stations along the reaches changed obviously. The bankfull discharge tends to decrease and the bankfull cross-section area, channel width, average flow depth and maximum flow depth tends to decrease correspondingly. The ratio of cross-sectional width to depth for bankfull discharge increases. The further analysis on the change point shows that the channel shrinkage began in the period from 1970 to 1975, and serious shrinkage occurred since 1990.更多还原