【摘要】 航班延误问题是近年来大型枢纽机场运行管理的一个难题,为了对航班延误波及情况做出较准确的预测,提出了带有权值调整的马尔可夫模型,给出了一种动态状态转移概率矩阵的计算方法。针对首都机场航班延误4个预警等级,以一小时为预警间隔预测了离港航班的延误率,仿真实验结果表明,在出现大面积航班延误的情况下,航班延误预测准确率平均在90%以上,为大型枢纽机场实施及时的航班延误预警管理提供了良好的方法支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nowadays, flight delay has always been a difficult problem of operation and management at large aeronautic hub. In order to make more accurate forecast for flight delay, the Markov model with adjusting the value of weight is proposed, a state transition probability matrix of dynamic method is given to solve this problem, and the delay probability of airport departure per hour is forecasted according to the Capital Airport’s four early warning grades of flight delay. Simulation results demonstrate that under the higher rate of flight delay conditions, the accuracy rate of warning of flight delay is more than 90% at average, so that some basis is provided method support for early warning management on flight delay of Large Aeronautic Hub.更多还原