【摘要】 本文应用指数平滑模型根据其观测值的数据特点,选取趋势型三次指数平滑模型,并依据[PVV]最小准则选用合适的平滑系数值进行计算,预测了基坑某监测点的水平变形。结果表明,该方法与[VV]最小准则相比可使预测值与实际位移值之间的误差更小,与二次曲线拟合相比更加稳定。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper applies exponential smoothing model according to the observation data characteristics,Selects trend of the thrice exponential smoothing model,and according the smallest criterion to select appropriately smooth coefficient,has forecast the special point horizontal deformation quantity.The result indicated that,this method comparing with criterion may cause smaller error value between the forecast value and the actual deformation value,and may be more stable comparing with the quadratic curve fitting.更多还原