【摘要】 鉴于目前流行的点弹性、弧弹性和回归分析方法的缺陷,重新设计一种基于双效应面板数据模型的估算方法,重估中国非农产业的就业弹性。结果表明,当前东部地区第二产业的就业弹性仍保持在较高的水平,而第三产业已下滑至较低;相反,中西部地区第二产业的就业弹性较低,第三产业仍保持较高水平,但低于人们普遍的预期。并进一步分析这种分布结构的内在原因及其影响。其研究方法和结论可为评估当前经济下滑背景下的就业形势提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 The article is to estimate the employment elasticity of China’s non-agriculture sector. Because there are many shortcomings in popular estimation methods such as point elasticity, arc elasticity and regression method, the article designs a new method based on dual effect panel-data model. And we analyze employment elasticity from three dimensions: industries, regions and wage. We find that, in the east region, the employment elasticity of industry sector is still high, while that of service sector being comparatively low. On the other hand, in the middle and west regions, the employment elasticity of industry sector is very low, while that of service sector being comparatively high. Furthermore, we’ve analyzed the reasons of above findings and their effect. The method and conclusion of this article can help people analyze the effect of present economic recession on China’s employment.更多还原