【摘要】 基于2005~2007年汛期成都区域气象中心的中尺度区域集合预报产品和德国、日本数值预报模式的降水产品,针对四川暴雨构建样本资料,采用支持向量机方法(Support Vector Machines,简称SVM)建立暴雨预警模型,开展暴雨预警预报试验,并将建立的模型应用于2008年汛期四川省逐日暴雨有无预报。检验结果表明,基于区域中尺度集合预报产品建立的SVM暴雨预警模型,对暴雨定点预报有较强的指示作用,暴雨预警指数为0.2。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on construited sample data in Sichuan,with the ensemble prediction products in flood season over 2005-2007 from Chengdu Regional Meteorological Center as well as numerical rainfall products from Germany and Japan,a warning-rainstorm model is developed by using of Support Vector Machines method(SVM).The model was applied to predict daily rainstorm in flood season in 2008.The application result shows that the warning index as 0.2,the model is good at indicating fixed-point rainstorm prediction relatively.更多还原