【摘要】 通过分析2005—2008年影响浙江的梅汛期强降水云团特征,将云团分为偏北型、居中型和偏南型,研究这三种类型云团云顶亮温与地面1小时强降水极值和10mm/h以上降水覆盖面积关系,结果表明偏南型和偏北型云团有较多相似特征,而居中型云团较其他两种云团则有较多相反特征。通过分析1小时强降水相对于云团中心移动路径的落区,指出梅汛期云顶1小时变温和亮温梯度与地面1小时强降水落区无明显配对模型。随后利用天气形势场资料,分析强降水云团与环境要素场的关系,指出云顶亮温的宏观特征与中高层的垂直速度、水汽通量密切相关,最后尝试建立三种类型强降水云团成熟阶段云顶亮温和地面降水人工神经网络预报方程,给预报员提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 By analyzing the cloud characteristics during Meiyu periods from 2005 to 2008,the heavy rain clouds were classified into three types,i.e.north-type,center-type and south-type.The relations between the TBB of cloud top and corresponding rainfall extreme and coverage of rainfall rate above 10 mm/h were studied.The results indicate that the north-type and south-type clouds have lots of common feature,and show reverse features compared to the center-type.The position of heavy rainfall corresponding to the moving path of clouds revealed that during Meiyu periods the one-hour variation and gradient of TBB were not obviously correlative.Then the relations between environmental factors and clouds were analyzed.And the results show that the macroscopic features of cloud are obviously correlative with vertical velocity and water vapor flux.At last based on atmospheric circumstances the neural network forecast equations of TBB of cloud top and strong rainfall in mature phase of clouds were developed.更多还原