【摘要】 针对现有国军标规定的高、低温环境试验用弹量难以适用昂贵火箭弹定型试验的需要,提出了应用专家经验和Bayes方法的高低温环境下减少试验用弹量的试验方法。根据检测人员对标准样柱裂纹和脱粘检出结果,利用混合Beta分布确定检测人员每天检出概率的先验分布,导出在一定检出率要求下的检测次数,采用先验和Bayes方法确定高低温环境下的试验用弹量,与现行方法相比,在不降低试验要求的情况下,大幅度减少了试验用弹量。更多还原

【Abstract】 The method to determine rocket numbers in high and low temperature environment test by using experts’ experience and Bayesian method is presented.The rocket numbers prescribed in current China national army criterion for the use in high and low temperature environment test don’t adjust to the design test for costly rockets.The prior distribution of check results of the crack and bond of standard samples by using the mix Beta distribution is developed.The check time is deduced under given check probability.The number of rocket consumption in high and low temperature environment test is presented by using experts’ experience and Bayesian method.The method can decrease the number of rocket consumption in condition of guaranteeing the quality of the test compared with the current methods.更多还原