【摘要】 民机周转件对飞行安全及航空公司经济效益有着重要影响。应用修理度概念,在广义更新过程的基础上改进了比例危险模型,建立了反映周转备件寿命及运行环境、维修历史等协变量参数变化趋势的预测模型,通过实际故障数据进行参数估计,并在蒙托卡罗仿真的基础上计算设定时间段内周转备件的数量。最后以某周转件为例对有无协变量、不同维修方式等条件进行对比分析,结果表明该方法更符合工程实际。更多还原

【Abstract】 Civil aircraft rotable spare part plays an important role for the safe operation and profits of airlines.A practical model is presented to reflect the rotable life variation with covariates,such as operating environment factor and maintenance history.The concept of the repair degree is used and the proportional hazards model(PHM) is improved based on general renewal process.The parameter value is estimated by analyzing failure data and then the number rotables are calculated based on Monte Carlo simulation.An example is given and the results of various maintenance policies with and without considering covariates are compared and analyzed.Results show that the model has a larger practical value.更多还原