【摘要】 探讨了风电场风速预测对电力系统稳定运行、经济调度、运行效益及电力市场环境下风电场参与市场竞争能力的重要影响和意义,建立了考虑风电场气象因子影响的BP神经网络风速预测的一种新模型,该模型兼顾了相似日特征的作用和影响。运用该模型对新疆某实际风电场进行了日平均风速、最大风速、最大风速方向进行了连续20天的预测,平均相对误差分别为8.07%,10.09%,9.05%。预测结果表明了该方法的有效性、实用性和可靠性。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper discusses that the impact and significance of wind speed forecasting on the stable operation of power systems,economic dispatch,operation efficiency and wind power capacity for participating in market competition under the current electricity market environment. A new model is proposed to estimate the wind speed in wind farm based on the meteorological factors with BP neural network,the model considers the characteristics of similar day at the same time. With the help of this model,the forecast on the daily average wind speed,maximum wind speed and its direction has been carried out in a wind farm in Xinjiang Autonomous Region,20 days has been taken for the forecast,the average error of forecasting is 8.07%,10.09%,9.05% respectively. The practicality,reliability and effectiveness of the method are proved by the forecasting results.更多还原