【摘要】 随着我国经济的快速增长,国民经济对电力的需求随之快速增长。为了在快速增长的同时保持电力增长的稳定性,了解电力周期的波动情况,成了重要的问题。本文利用单变量状态空间法对改革开放以来的电力需求数据进行分析,建立结构时间模型,利用单变量状态法找出变化趋势,分析我国电力需求周期情况,为预测未来电力需求走势,提前做好应对措施提供了依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with China’s rapid economic growth,the demand for electric power also growths rapidly.To guarantee the growing stability while keeping the fast speed,realize the situation of the power demand’s fluctuations has become an urgent problem.In this paper,the single-variable state space method is used for analyzing the power demand since China’s reform and opening,establishing the structural time model,and founding out the changing trend by using the single-variable state method,then analyzes China’s power demand.It’s useful for predicting the power demand in the future and providing the reference for the advanced preparation.更多还原