【摘要】 选定较可靠的人员伤亡盲估方法,对宁夏南部山区未来发生破坏性地震时可能造成的人员伤亡进行快速盲估。与新中国建立以来宁夏及甘肃发生的破坏性地震造成的人员伤亡进行对比,分析3种方法估算结果的差异性,认为在使用同一人口和建筑数据的情况下,前2种方法估算的结果更可信。更多还原

【Abstract】 The credible "blind estimation" is chosen to estimate the possible casualty in southern region of Ningxia in future.The estimated result and the real casualty happened in the destructive earthquake in Ningxia and Gansu after the founding is contrasted.The paper analyzes the difference of the three methods.The conclusion is that the former two methods are more credible with the same people and buildings data.The estimation result can not only provide help to the post-seismic fast evaluation and post-seismic emergency rescue,but also provide reference for earthquake prevention and disaster mitigation in southern region of Ningxia.更多还原