节点文献
基于GM(1,1)模型预测我国未来化工企业安全生产形势
Prediction of Safety Production Situation for Chemical Enterprises Based on GM(1,1) Model
【摘要】 根据2004—2008年我国化工企业较大事故级别以上的统计数据,应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,选用二阶弱化算子法与三点平滑法相结合对原始数据进行预处理,对未来我国化工企业安全生产形势进行了预测,为化工企业与安全监管部门的安全管理和安全决策提供了科学、定量的依据。
【Abstract】 On the basis of the collection of severe accidents in chemical enterprises from 2004 to 2008,the safety situation of the chemical engineering production in the future can be predicted by Grey Theory GM(1,1) in addition to the original data pre-processing by the method of second-order weakening operator selection in combination with the three-point smoothing.The prediction result can be regarded as the important science gist for the safety management and safety decision-making of chemical enterprise and safety supervision departments.
【关键词】 GM(1,1)模型;
数据预处理;
化工事故;
预测;
【Key words】 GM(1.1)model; data pre-processing; accident of chemical engineering; prediction;
【Key words】 GM(1.1)model; data pre-processing; accident of chemical engineering; prediction;
- 【文献出处】 安全与环境工程 ,Safety and Environmental Engineering , 编辑部邮箱 ,2009年05期
- 【分类号】X937
- 【被引频次】4
- 【下载频次】228