【摘要】 收集和整理了1949年至2005年台风年鉴统计资料和上海崇明岛侯家镇气象站逐时(连续)气象观测记录。对于上海近年来两次强台风(麦莎0509和卡努0515)进行了案例分析,表明台风风场的强变异性不容忽视,台风风环境评价采用可靠度分析理论具有相当的优势。Monte-Carlo台风随机模拟结果亦表明极值风速样本分布具有偏态性,由此建议了极值风速估算保证率系数的合理取值。采用Monte-Carlo台风风场随机模型和敏感度分析方法计算了不同场地条件风环境随机参数对于台风极值风速的贡献程度,并对上海地区的台风风场参数合理取值进行了优化。最后,以越界峰值法和广义Pareto分布探讨了工程场地目标重现期内极值风速预测过程,再现了几类典型工程场地台风风环境的梯度风高度、平均风剖面、极值风速和阵风因子取值特点,并与建筑结构荷载规范进行了对比。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the help of a large amount of typhoon observation date from meterological satellite observation and on-site wind velocity records in Shanghai Chongming weather station from 1949-2005,case studies are carried out about two strong typhoons(Matsa0509 and Khanum0515) attacked Shanghai region hardly.It can be concluded that serious variance of stochastic parameters in typhoon wind field be not ignored and the assessment to typhoon disasters must be combined with reliability algorithm.Sensitivity indices about several wind field stochastic parameters to typhoon extreme value wind in Shanghai region are calculated using Monte-Carlo typhoon stochastic model and sensitivity analysis technique,then by the comparison between Monte-Carlo simulation results and observation ones,those wind field parameters with higher sensitive indices could be optimized easily.Finally,typhoon extreme wind characteristics in several typical civil engineering fields in Shanghai region are simulated using Peak Over Threshold method and generalized Pareto distribution,illustrating distribution rules about gradient wind height,wind profile,extreme wind velocity and gust factor etc.,while those results are compared with wind loading code.更多还原