【摘要】 在台风预报中,使用相似路径是常用且相当有效的一种方法。但路径相似的台风由于在不同的环流形势下,最终导致风雨影响差异很大。2007年13号超强台风"韦帕"和2005年15号强台风"卡努"从生成时间和移动路径上都非常的相似,但因大气环流结构有所不同,造成的风雨影响也不同。本文通过对比这两次台风过程的移动路径、大气环流背景以及物理量场找出同一季节,在洋面上生成的台风由于不同的大气环流结构,造成风雨影响不同的原因。物理量压能和湿焓两者综合应用,对暴雨预报有较好的指导作用,强湿焓平流与未来暴雨落区有较好的对应关系,对今后台风暴雨的预报有一定的参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 In typhoon forecast,it is a common and effective way to make use of the similar path. Super typhoon "WIPHA" ,the No.13 in 2007,and severe typhoon "KHANUN" ,the No.15 in 2005 were similar in time and route. However,there were big differences in the wind and rain caused by them because of the different atmosphere circumfluence. By comparing and analyzing the two typhoons,we find that,there will be a larger precipitation if cold air is combined with inverted trough when a typhoon appears. The wind will be stronger if there is high pressure preventing a typhoon in the north of Yangtze River as the pressure gradient between typhoon and the high pressure is bigger. If physical variate pressure energy and moist enthalpy are put into an application together,forecasts about rainstorms will be well guided. Intense moist enthalpy advection has something to do with the area where there will be a rainstorm,and as a result,it is of great value for forecasts about rainstorms and typhoons.更多还原