【摘要】 通过分析路段上各点以及交叉口之间交通流的内在联系,利用连续性和相关性原理,建立基于检测器布局的短期交通流预测模型.探讨了检测器布局的一般方法,阐述了布局位置对交通流预测结果的影响.根据路段上游、下游2点的检测器数据可建双点预测模型,能用于隧道、桥梁等特殊路段的短期交通流预测.根据路网上多个检测点的数据,可建立多点预测模型,各检测点的权重用F-AHP法确定,模型系数矩阵用最小二乘法标定.以重庆市某路段的交通量预测为例,分别用双点预测法和多点预测法进行了预测,并对预测效果进行了分析和比较.更多还原

【Abstract】 Traffic flow at different point of the upper and lower link have close relationship,they have continuity and relativity characteristic.This paper put forward short-term traffic flow forecasting models based on traffic detector’s layout.It discussed the general method on how to distribute detector,and analyzed the effect of detector’s layout on the traffic flow predication.It set a double-point forecasting model using traffic flow data that on the upper and lower link,which will perfectly fit tunnel traffic flow predication.A multi-point forecasting model is also given in the paper,which will improve the predication result.In the multi-point model,the detector’s weighing was computed by F-AHP method,coefficient matrix computed by least square method.An example is given,using double-point model and multi-point model separately,and their forecasting result is compared.更多还原