【摘要】 目前国内对航班延误状态的描述方法很多,缺乏统一的计算模型,对航班延误结果的评价也比较模糊。以航空公司的航班延误管理为研究目标,采用层次分析方法(AHP),提出了以航班延误率、平均延误时间及延误损失为评价指标的航班延误状态描述方法,运用马尔可夫(Markov)链对评价指标进行预测,通过仿真实验与结果分析,给出了航班延误预警管理的计算模型,为航空公司实施可控因素的航班延误的预警管理提供了理论与方法支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 Although there are many ways to describe the states of flight delay,it is still a hard task to model flight delay and to evaluate flight delay consequence in an authorized way.In this paper,a mathematical flight delay forecast model is derived to estimate the delay of each flight,based on analysing the main factors influencing the flight delay,the consideration of the scheduled flight delay rate,the average time of delay and the delay loss,and the Markov theory is used to forecast the evaluation index.To validate the developed delay forecast model,a case based airline is analyzed in detail.A flight delay early warning management model is also proposed in this paper by employing AHP.更多还原