【摘要】 利用农产品价格时间序列的当前值和过去值准确预报未来值,将有利于正确引导农产品流通和农业生产,实现农产品区域供求平衡,并为政府和农户提供结构调整的依据。针对农产品价格这一重要问题,以白菜月价格数据为例,构建非平稳时间序列ARIMA(p,d,q)模型并预测白菜未来的月价格。结果表明ARIMA(0,1,1)模型能很好地模拟并预测白菜月价格趋势,为农产品市场信息的准确预测提供重要方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 The forecast of future values of a time series based on the current and past values of the prices of agricultural prod-ucts is helpful to guide agricultural products circulation and production,balance the supply and demand in different regions and provide the basis for agricultural restructuring by the government and farmers.To address this important issue,this paper introduces the non-stationary time series model ARIMA(p,d,q) built on monthly prices of cabbage and attempts to forecast the price in the coming months.The result proves that ARIMA(0,1,1) can correctly simulate and forecast the price trend of cabbage,providing an important method for the accurate forecast of agricultural product market information.更多还原