【摘要】 将SIR传染模型嵌入到基于二维规则晶格的个体运动模型中,研究移动群体中的疾病传播行为。利用平均场理论和大量的数值仿真分析SIR模型的传染临界值。结果表明,有效传播临界速率与晶格中群体密度密切相关,并且个体运动也会显著影响疾病传播行为。最后,基于分析和仿真的结果,提出了一些可行的控制策略来抑制疾病在移动环境下的传播。更多还原

【Abstract】 To investigate the disease spreading behavior within population of mobile individuals,the Susceptible-Infective-Removed(SIR) epidemic model is embedded into the individual motion model based on two dimensional(2D) regular lattices.Mean-field theory and large-scale numerical simulations are employed to analyze the critical threshold of the SIR model.The results indicate that the effective critical propagation rate is closely related with the density of mobile individuals,and the motion also remarkably influences the epidemic spreading behavior.At the end,some feasible control strategies,which are based on the analytical and simulation results,are proposed to contain the epidemic spreading within mobile populations.更多还原