【摘要】 统计分析了济源1971-2007年夏季的年、月、旬气温资料,发现高温日数多发生在6-7月份,年高温日数多为14-20天,且具有逐渐增多的趋势。利用小波方法分析济源高温日数发现,1971-1990年高温日数存在8 a左右的周期震荡,1990-2007年震荡周期有减小趋势,约为6 a左右。应用模糊马尔科夫模型对济源市高温日数进行预测,预测结果与实况吻合。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the annual,monthly,10 days temperature data in summer from 1971 to 2007 in Jiyuan,the results show that high temperature days always occur in June and July,the annual high temperature days are about 14-20 d,and with an increasing trend.Using wavelet method,it is found that the number of high temperature days has an 8 a oscillation cycle in 1971-1990, and has approximately 6 a cycle in 1990-2007.The number of high temperature days in the future forecast has coincided with the actual result using the fuzz Markov chain mode.更多还原