【摘要】 采用逐步回归法对黄河三角洲沿海蝗区近26a的东亚飞蝗调查资料和气象观测资料进行分析,筛选适合的气象预报因子,分别建立东亚飞蝗夏、秋蝗发生面积和夏蝗发生密度统计预报模型,上述预报模型均通过0.05显著性统计检验。对建模内预报值和2009年预报应用效果进行验证,各预报模型预报准确率较高。更多还原

【Abstract】 The survey data and meteorological data of oriental migratory locust in coastal locust area of the Yellow River delta in the past 26 years were analyzed by stepwise regression method. The suited meteorological forecast factors were selected to establish the statistic forecast models for the occurrence area of summer locust and autumn locust and the occurrence density of summer locust respectively, and these forecast models all passed the 0.05 significance statistic tests. The forecast value and forecast applying effect for 2009 of each model were verified, the results showed that there was a high forecast accuracy of each forecast model.更多还原