【摘要】 唐家山堰塞湖是5.12汶川大地震形成的高危型堰塞湖,对下游城市构成了重大威胁.唐家山堰塞湖应急除险决策需要解决在库区水位持续迅速上升、震后安全条件复杂多变的条件下,对湖区入流和水位变化过程及时准确预报的问题.采用数字流域模型对唐家山堰塞湖进行来流预报.通过分析降雨条件和决策需求,结合实时天气预报的结果,采用降雨情景分析和实时预报相结合的方法,实现了入库流量和水位变化的短期预测.预测的日水位误差为0.06 m,占日水位变幅的4.7%,为应急除险决策提供了参考数据.数字流域模型在唐家山堰塞湖的应用,提供了一个应急情形下实现合理来流预报的案例.更多还原

【Abstract】 Tangjiashan dammed lake is a dangerous dammed lake induced by "5·12" Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan Province and leads to great threat to the downstream cities.With regard to the disaster mitigation decision-making for Tangjiashan dammed lake,an instant and accurate prediction of lake inflows and water levels was urgently required under the increasing reservoir water level and complex post-earthquake safety conditions.The digital watershed model(DWM) was employed to forecast the inflows into Tangjiashan dammed lake.Based on the analysis of precipitation conditions and decision-making requirements and combined with the results of the real-time weather forecast,a short-term prediction of inflows and water levels was realized by use of the combination method of precipitation analysis and real-time forecast.The maximum error of the hourly prediction of the water level is 0.06 m,accounting for 4.7% of variation of the daily water level,and it provides reference data for the disaster mitigation decisionmaking.The application of DWM in Tangjiashan dammed lake is a case of realizing the rational inflow prediction under emergent situations.更多还原