【摘要】 在充分了解国家及华东地区节能减排政策的基础上,结合华东地区工业化进程情况及经济发展现实,分析了华东地区在节能减排背景下电力需求变化呈现出的新特点。通过对常用中长期电力需求预测方法在节能减排背景下的适用性分析,对其中弹性系数法、相关分析法以及模糊预测方法等进行了深入探讨,同时为了验证所提出预测方法的可用性,对华东地区"十二五"期间的电力需求情况进行了预测和分析,并对节能减排背景下华东地区未来的用电结构进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 The energy-saving and emission reduction policies in East China area and the country as a whole were presented.The new features of power demand of the Area in the context of energy-saving and emission reduction environment and under its current situation of industrialization and economic development were analyzed.The applicability of some well-used long and medium-term power demand forecasting methods,such as the elasticity coefficient method,the correlation analysis method,and the fuzzy forecast method,were analyzed,and a synthetic prediction method was proposed.Furthermore,these methods were used to forecast the power demand of East China from 2010 to 2015 to check their feasibility.The future power demand structure in East China was also analyzed.更多还原