【摘要】 以门限自回归统计方法为基础进行南宁城市臭氧日最大小时浓度TAR模型预报研究。选取日平均气压作为参与预报气象因子、180日作为建模资料长度、开方形式的数据转换后建立模型预报效果更佳。预报结果检验表明预报方案是可行的,并提出了改进建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Threshold auto-regressive(TAR) statistical method was selected to conduct O3 concentrations forecast in Nanning.Comparisons of the predicting and monitoring shows that using daily pressure as participant meteorological element,180-day as sample length,and evolution as alternation of data,TAR mode can make the better forecasts.Some improved suggestions are also given.更多还原