【摘要】 利用CMSVM的回归方法,用2003~2007年的欧洲数值预报格点资料和庆阳市8个自动站极端气温资料建立最高最低气温预报模型。2008年业务运行效果检验评估表明:5 d最高、最低气温综合平均预报准确率达到64%和71%,对实时业务有较好的指导作用。最高、最低气温准确率随着预报时效的延长效果降低,最低比最高气温的预报准确率高。最低气温预报效果春夏季好于秋冬季,最高气温相反。最高、最低气温绝对误差和平均误差都随预报时效的延长增大,最高比最低气温平均绝对误差大,二者的平均误差接近,均为正值,预报值具有偏高的倾向。对9月明显变化过程的评估表明,最高最低气温预报与实况演变的趋势相似。更多还原

【Abstract】 The prediction model for the highest and lowest temperature is established by the CMSVM regression method based on ECMWF data and the extreme temperature observations from 8 automatic weather stations in Qingyang of Gansu Province from 2003 to 2007.The effect test in 2008 operation forecast indicated that the rate of average forecast accuracy is 64% and 71% for the highest and lowest temperature in 5 days,which has the good instruction for the real-time weather service.The forecast accuracy rate of the highest and lowest temperature decreased with the forecast time increase,and the accuracy rate for the lowest temperature is higher than that of the highest temperature.The forecast effect for the lowest temperature is better in spring and summer than that in autume and winter,but it is opposite for the highest temperature.The absolute and the average forecast errors for the highest and lowest temperature are added with the forecast time increase,and the absolute forecast error for the highest temperature is bigger than that of the lowest but the average error is close and positive.The forecast effect test in Septemper of 2008 indicated that the forecast values presented the similar trend to real time observations for the highest and lowest temperature.更多还原