【摘要】 依据石羊河流域中下游地区64个观测点30年(1978～2007)的地下水位观测资料,定量分析了地下水位的季节性动态特征和多年变化规律及其分布地带,将季节性动态划分为径流、开采、灌溉—开采、蒸发4种类型,多年动态划分为快速下降、缓慢下降和基本稳定3种类型。采用灰色理论建立了所有观测点地下水位的灰色残差修正GM(1,1)预报模型并进行了预报。预报至2010年,石河河流域中下游地区的地下水位仍将处于不断下降过程,但下降幅度较1978～2007年有所减缓,部分地带地下水位可能趋于稳定。预报结果对于改善流域特别是下游民勤绿洲的生态与环境将起到积极的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the groundwater level of observed data from 64 observation point of region in the Shiyanghe River Basin in 30 years,by quantitative analysing annual regime characteristic and perennial regime variation regular and distributed region of groundwater,the annual regime division for four typies,the runoff,exploitation,irrigation-exploitation and evaporates.perennial regime division for three tupies,fast descend,slow descend and basic stable.Using the Grey Theory to establish residual error series GM(1,1) prediction model of ground water level of all observation point.The forecast to 2010,the middle and lower reaches of Shiyang River Basin the groundwater lever was still in descend,comparing with the descending rate of 1978~2007,it have slow down,the partial region groundwater lever tends to be stable possibly.The forecast resule will have positive influence to the improvement of Shiyang River basin,especially the ecology and environment of Minqin oasis.更多还原