【摘要】 本文对人民币参照一篮子货币进行管理的浮动汇率制度进行了定量检验。通过对3年多来的汇率日数据的分析,发现美元在人民币参考货币篮中占据绝对重要的地位。运用移动窗口回归分析方法,发现人民币参照货币篮子的稳定性存在下降的趋势,美元权重缓慢下降,人民币相对货币篮子整体持续升值。通过对外汇储备变化的分析,发现我国货币当局对参照货币篮子的承诺水平并不高。人民币汇率政策的灵活性在这一新制度下有了更充分的保证。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the basket-currency-based managed floating exchange rate regime of Renminbi. Using daily exchange rates over the past 3 years,we find that the US Dollar has a dominant position in the reference basket for Renminbi. The moving-window regression analysis reveals that the stability of the reference basket is declining,with the US Dollar gradually losing its position and Renminbi persistently appreciating against the basket as a whole. By analyzing the change in foreign exchange reserves,this paper also finds that the commitment of the monetary authority to the reference basket is weak. The new regime ensures that the Renminbi exchange rate policy is increasingly flexible.更多还原