【摘要】 文中主要针对模型研究的土地利用/覆被变化类型、模型分析的尺度与层次、建模的理论框架和模型的精度检验这4个方面,对当前土地利用/覆被变化模型研究所面临的问题进行了深入探讨和分析。结果表明:1)土地利用/覆被变化包括转换和渐变两种主要类型,而且通常的土地利用/覆被变化大多属于渐变类型,但是目前的模型多是研究土地利用/覆被变化的转换过程,而对渐变过程的研究相对较少,因而应该加强对土地利用/覆被变化渐变过程的模拟与分析。2)土地利用/覆被变化是一个多尺度过程,模型研究应该探索包括经济学中的均衡分析和统计学中的多层次分析在内的多种建模方法,而不是局限于某一种方法,以便更加深入地认识不同尺度或层次之间的相互作用及反馈关系。3)土地利用/覆被变化具有很强的复杂性,应该对复杂的土地利用/覆被变化过程进行分解和集成,多视角地探索建模的理论框架。4)精度检验是模型研究的重要组成部分,应该构建多时间尺度与多空间尺度的土地利用/覆被变化模型,探讨在多个时间尺度和多个空间尺度上进行精度检验及不确定性分析的方法与技术。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land use/cover change models are tools to support the analysis of the complex processes of land use/cover changes and to provide better information for land use planning and policy.In order to identify the strengths and weaknesses of current land use/cover modeling techniques,current land use/cover change models were reviewed based on types of land use/cover change,scale and level of analysis,theory supports for developing models,and validation of models.It was concluded that the following issues should be given specific attention in developing a new generation of land use/cover change models:1)Modelling land use/cover modification.Land use/cover changes are not simple processes.There are complex simultaneous patterns of land use/cover change,ranging from modifications in land use/cover to conversions.Most available data of land use/cover change are about conversions and often does not reflect modifications in land use/cover.More attention should be paid to the modifications in land use/cover investigation and models in order to understand the dynamics of land use/cover change and its effects.2)Scale and level of analysis.Land use/cover change is generally seen as a multi-scale process in which processes and driving factors operating at different scales and levels influencing the actual rate and location of land use/cover change.However,research models are most often do not designed for analysis at multiple scales synchronously.More methods,including equilibrium analysis in economics and multi-level modeling in statistics,should be used in developing land use/cover change models,and do not strictly adhere any one methods in order to adequately deal with interactions between levels of analysis.3)Theory support to land use/cover change models.It is difficult to get one overarching theory of land use science that could lead model development.Therefore,the best way forward is to explore more perspectives for land use/cover change modeling frameworks by dividing the complex processes into several relative simple processes,and then integrating them into a comprehensive model.4)Validation of land use/cover change models.The majority of the large number of existing land use/cover change models lack a proper validation.Useful techniques of validation for multi-spatial and multi-temporal land use/cover change models should be found in the future research.In addition,uncertainty analysis is also an important component in testing a land use/cover change model’s prediction accuracy.更多还原