【摘要】 采用现代计量经济学协整分析及其Granger因果检验法,对新疆1990~2006年间旅游业发展与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。结果发现,经济增长对旅游业的拉动效应存在一个滞后期的问题。而且在短期内,新疆旅游业发展与经济增长不存在相互因果关系,却具有长期的均衡关系,且国际旅游收入对经济的推动作用在时间上超前于国内旅游收入。这一结论在一定程度上为新疆今后的旅游发展政策制定提供一定的科学依据,避免盲目性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,the modern econometric cointegration analysis and Granger causality test were used to make a study on the relationship between tourism development and economic growth of Xinjiang from 1990 to 2006.The results showed that the economic growth stimulating effect had a lag period on the tourism industry.But in the short term,there was no causal relationship between Xinjiang tourism development and economic growth,they had a long-term balanced relations,and the stimulatory effect of international tourism income to the economy ahead the domestic tourism income in the time.To some extent,this conclusion provided a scientific basis to avoid blindness for tourism development policy formulation of Xinjiang in the future.更多还原