【摘要】 利用1953-2002年中国722个台站的降水资料,应用分形理论中的R/S分析法基本原理,设计了两种降水Hurst指数试验,研究预测了中国五大区年降水的气候变化趋势及其突变。通过两种试验对比得出:"年降水20年试验"能有效确定降水状态的转折点,进而判断降水变化的突变。研究表明:中国五大区年雨日有着完全一致的减少趋势,期间不存在年雨日由减少转为增加的突变点。今后年雨日仍将继续减少,依照五大区气候倾向率,未来10年,东部北方区、西北区、东部南方区、西南区、青藏高原区平均每10年减少雨日分别为6.8天、4.1天、5.9天、11.4天和3.7天。中国1953-2002年,有三次降水量突变。第一次年降水量由减少突变为增加,它包括了东部北方区的H11980、西北区的H11981和青藏高原的H11982;第二次年降水量由增加突变为减少,它依次包括上述三区的H21988,H21985和H21987;第三次年降水量由减少突变为增加,它仅包括青藏高原的H31991。中国五大区中,东部北方区和西北区的年降水量未来10年仍将继续减少,依气候倾向率,它们平均每10年分别减少15.3 mm和6.2 mm。东部南方区、西南区、青藏高原未来10年年降水量将继续增加,依气候倾向率,它们平均每10年分别增加:15.4 mm、0.5 mm和31.4 mm,降水量不论增加和减少,它们的趋势性都相对很强。更多还原

【Abstract】 Supported by the data of 722 stations’ precipitation from 1953 to 2002,and made use of principle of fractal theory’s R/S analysis method,two kinds of precipitation’s Hurst index test were designed to research and forecast the tendency and mutation of annual precipitation’s climate change in the five areas of China.With the help of two test’s comparison,the conclusions were put out that "annual precipitation’s 20-year test" can effectively determine the turning points of precipitation tendency and its mutation.The research shows that the annual precipitation days still keep express decreasing tendency very unanimously in the five areas of China,there were not the mutation points for precipitation from decreasing to increasing during this period.The annual precipitation days will still continue to decrease from now on.According to the climate trend ratio of the five areas,average rainy days for ten years will respectively decrease 6.8,4.1,5.9,11.4 and 3.7 days in the north area,northwest area,south area,southwest area and Qinghai-Tibet plateau area in the coming ten years.From 1953 to 2002,there were three times of precipitation mutation in China,The first time was that the annual precipitation was suddenly changed from decreasing to increasing,including the north area(1980),northwest area(1981) and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau area(1982).The second time was that the annual precipitation was suddenly changed from increasing to decreasing,including three areas mentioned above and their occurring in 1988,1983 and 1987 respectively.The third time was that the annual precipitation was suddenly changed from decreasing to increasing,only occurring in Plateau area in 1991.The precipitation of north area and northwest area will still keep decreasing.更多还原