【摘要】 采用灰色拓扑模型对塔里木河三源流及干流径流趋势进行分析预测,研究结果表明未来五年内阿克苏河与和田河径流量不具有明显上升趋势,而叶尔羌河径流量在未来五年内则出现下降趋势,这种情况将加剧干流断流的现状。在上述研究的基础上,作者还对博斯腾湖大山口站径流变化趋势和车尔臣河水系对台特玛湖的作用进行分析,探讨了向塔里木河输水的可持续性问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Tarim River,in the south of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,in western China,is the longest arid and inland river in China and is also one of the most famous ones in the world.Possessing rich natural resources and a vulnerable environment are the characteristics of the Tarim River.The ecosystems in the Tarim River basin are extremely fragile and susceptible to disturbances due to severe lack of water resources.Environment of the lower reaches of the Tarim River was improved by 9 times water conveyance;however,the length of dried-up riverway increased continually and the number of dried-up days was longer and longer.If this trend can not be controlled,the difficulties of ecological water conveyance would be strengthened,and the vegetation that has been revived would degenerate again.In order to analyze the change trend of annual runoff volume of three headstreams(the Aksu River,Yarkand River and Hotan River),the data derived from five hydrological stations from 1957 to 2008 were chosen.At the same time,the runoff volume of Dashankou Hydrological Station(the controlled station of Bostan Lake) from 1956 to 2007 and Alar Hydrological Station(mainstream) from 1958 to 2008 were adopted.The annual runoff volume of three headstreams and the mainstream were analyzed and that of the Aksu River,Yarkand River,Hotan River and mainstream showed increasing steadily,increasing unsteadily and decreasing mildly,respectively,in recent 50 years.Then grey topology model was employed in this paper to forecast the runoff volume of three headstreams and mainstream of the Tarim River.The results showed that the runoff volume of the Aksu River and Hotan River didn’t present an increasing trend,while that of the Yarkand River presented a decreasing trend in recent years.It implied that the volume of headstreams would reduce and the condition of dried-up riverway would be bad.And then,the sustainability of water conveyance to the lower reaches of the Tarim River was discussed.Based on the above analysis,it was found that the less runoff volume entering into mainstream led to more serious dried-up situation.There is a high risk of transporting water from Bostan Lake based on analysis on runoff volume trend of Dashankou Station of Bostan Lake.Volume of the Cheerchen River can not improve environment by analyzing the function of Cheerchen River on Taitema Lake.In conclusion,it is the only way controlling the water utilization in the headstream area to ensure enough water in production,living and ecology.We should pay attention to the key issues,and establish relevant countermeasure about water management to lessen threatens from variation of hydrological state on local social economic development and ecological protection.We hope to supply a gist for the future water resources management in the Tarim River Basin.更多还原