【摘要】 近年来,湖南省经济持续快速发展。针对对外贸易是否促进了经济增长的争论,本文根据对单个国家(地区)的时间序列数据进行实证研究的主流理论,利用湖南省1981￣2007年统计数据,运用回归分析、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验等方法对湖南省对外贸易和经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。结果发现湖南省经济增长与出口、进口、消费、投资之间存在着长期稳定的关系,出口和投资、消费都是经济增长的原因。因此主张继续重视进出口、消费、投资与经济增长的协调关系,努力促进湖南省经济实现稳定的可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 The economy of Hunan Province has kept a sustained and rapid development in recent years.This paper conducts an empirical analysis on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Hunan Province by making use of the statistics of Hunan Province from 1981 to 2007,along with the regression analysis,the cointegration test,and the Granger causality test method.The result shows that there exists a long-term and stable relationship between the economic growth and the exports,imports,consumption and investment.Exports,investment and consumption stimulate the growth of economy.Therefore the government should continue to attach importance to the coordination of import,export,consumption,investment and economic growth and make great efforts to promote stability in Hunan Province to achieve a sustainable economic development.更多还原