【摘要】 根据小菜蛾生物学、生态学特性,1996～2002年历时7年在广州市郊5个代表性的地点监测,以田间虫口基数、性诱蛾量和气象因素为预报因子,组建广州地区小菜蛾发生量预测预报回归模型,应用模型进行发生量预测。经2003、2004年试用检验,预报结果达到准确范围。更多还原

【Abstract】 Guangzhou city is the centure of the Pearl River Delta area,which is one of major vegetable growing areas in china.The major models there are high-bed and low-ditch continuous vegetable growing model.The diamondback moth(DBM),Plutella xylostella,is an important,damaging insect of cruciferous crops worldwide and has become the most serious insect pest on crucifers in South China where the frequency of outbreaks has increased rapidly since the 1970s.The valid pest management requires an effective model for quantitatively predicting the pest populations.In this paper,a predictive model was established by regressing the major factors against the population level using data from the suburb areas of Guangzhou,China from 1997 to 2003.Correlation coefficients for the cases concererned were all above 0.9 in the model.To test its validity,the model was used to predict the population level of the pest in 2003 and 2004.The prediction from the model coincided well with the actual level of the pest population.更多还原