【摘要】 本文区分了潜在GDP的两类定义,即以充分就业理论为基础的非加速通货膨胀失业率(NAIRU)的GDP和以真实经济周期和经济增长理论为基础的趋势GDP,对潜在GDP的各种估计方法进行了比较分析,并尝试使用移动平均法、增长率推算法、HP滤波方法、BP滤波方法、BN分解方法、UC-Kalman滤波方法、C-D生产函数法和SVAR方法等8种方法对年度潜在GDP进行估计,使用HP滤波方法和BP滤波方法对季度潜在GDP进行估计。在此基础上得出各种估计方法在方向性上保持一致等相关结论。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper gives two definitions of potential GDP, one based on NAIRU and the other on growth trend.It also reviews the methods of estimating potential GDP and eight of those, including moving average, SVAR etc.are taken in the research of Chinese potential GDP.Finally this paper analyses the estimates and reaches conclusion that all the eight methods are relatively similar in estimating the trend of China’s GDP growth.更多还原